For many weeks it has been difficult to read the movements of Bitcoin. Some observers are betting on a return of BTC towards $23,000. A movement that would be the beginnings of a new short squeeze?
For now, Bitcoin is again holding a range of around $20,000. The support around $19,600 seems to be holding and we have seen the price bounce off it multiple times over the past few days. Some observers think that with the Bitcoin price set in a range, it could aim higher again.
No clear sign or direction is visible on Bitcoin and the market remains unclear. Macroeconomic conditions are not encouraging. Many fear a sharp rise in interest rates that would drag the equity market as well as the crypto market down.
Some traders, like Il Capo of Crypto, are still optimistic. For him, thanks to a bearish consensus, a short squeeze, that is to say, a liquidation of all positions for sale on Bitcoin could occur.
Thus the price would quickly return to $23,000 and eliminate many traders betting on the downside. To protect himself, he places an invalidation of his plan in the event of a breakout of $19,500. A scenario that we have already seen happen many times in recent months on the BTC.
What does total market capitalization tell us?
Some observers like YouTuber Van de Poppe call for looking at the Market Cap side of the crypto market. This indicator is often valuable in determining market highs and lows with some accuracy.
Bitcoin has been below its 200-day moving average for a long time. This is a first and it may justify bearish sentiment in the crypto market. But for him, the graph of total capitalization gives us even more clues. He says about this:
The total market capitalization of the crypto market shows that support is not far away, as it has kept the 200-day moving average as support and rested on the previous all-time high as well.
He is therefore waiting to see a clear retest of this support which could allow us to define a clear bottom. A contrarian opinion of the majority of the market expects Bitcoin to look lower, in the $12,000 area. Is often difficult to determine the direction that the king of crypto assets will take.
Define a winning strategy!
In a context as vague and indecisive as the one we know, it is not easy to take advantage of the situation. Some will take a short-term approach like Il Capo of Crypto to try to take advantage of the Bitcoin rebound.
However, with a short time horizon, the risks are all the greater. This is why the trader has a plan and a precise invalidation in the event of a breakout of 19,500 dollars.
For the majority of investors, DCA remains the best solution for investing in Bitcoin. A long-term horizon and regular purchases without thinking about the price allow you not to be subject to your emotions. For the time being, this strategy has yielded more than interesting returns on investment!
Resources like DCA.BTC allows us to calculate the ROI of an investment in DCA on Bitcoin throughout the last years. Thus investors who would have bought Bitcoin for $50 every week over the past two years are still in capital gain! A feat that is not obvious when we know the fall experienced by Bitcoin since its ATH in November 2021.
The Dollar Cost Averaging allows you to accumulate without asking questions. If you believe in the potential of the asset, this is the most accessible way to invest. It allows you to gain in serenity and to quietly wait for better days when the asset is at its lowest during the often prolonged phases of the bear market.